| Spatial Modeling of Gastric Cancer Morbidity and Its Determinants via Geographically Weighted Generalized Poisson Regression |
| کد مقاله : 1017-SPATIAL (R4) |
| نویسندگان |
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زهرا ناصری اکبر *1، مریم خیام زاده2، امیر کاوسی3 1Master Student,Paramedical Faculty,Biostatistics Department,Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Science, Tehran,Iran. 2Community Medicine Specialist, Academy of Medical Sciences ,Cancer Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran 3Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran |
| چکیده مقاله |
| Introduction: Gastric cancer is the fifth most common cancer and the fourth leading cause of cancer death. In 2022, it caused about 969,000 cases and 660,000 deaths, mainly in Eastern Asia. Global cases may reach 1.8 million and deaths 1.3 million by 2040, emphasizing prevention efforts. Method: This study analyzed stomach cancer registry data using Geographically Weighted Generalized Poisson Regression (GWGPR) to examine spatial variation in mortality. Six explanatory variables—smoking, age, physical activity, obesity, fruit intake, and vegetable intake—were derived from non-communicable disease risk factor surveillance. GWGPR was chosen because it corrects mean–variance inequality and accounts for non-stationarity across regions. A Gaussian kernel defined spatial weights, and the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) was applied to determine model fit and optimal bandwidth. Model outputs were mapped to highlight hotspots and visualize local effects of risk factors. Results: The GWGPR model revealed marked spatial heterogeneity. Smoking showed the strongest positive association with gastric cancer mortality, while older age, low physical activity, and obesity also contributed to elevated risk. In contrast, high fruit and vegetable consumption reduced mortality, though the strength of protection varied across regions. Population density produced inconsistent effects, alternating between risk-enhancing and protective. Conclusion: These findings confirm that gastric cancer mortality is shaped by location-specific determinants. GWGPR effectively uncovered local disparities, demonstrating smoking and lifestyle as key risks and diet as a strong protective factor. The variable role of population density indicates that broader environmental influences warrant further study. Spatially adaptive models can guide region-targeted prevention and intervention strategies. |
| کلیدواژه ها |
| Poisson regression, Geographically weighted regression (GWR), Geographically weighted Generalized Poisson Regression (GWGPR), Spatial analysis, Cancer registry data, Stomach cancer ,Iran |
| وضعیت: پذیرفته شده برای ارائه شفاهی |